Minimum Sustainable Employment

What is the maximum level of unemployment in the US that can be maintained while still allowing the provision of the basic needs of the population which could be defined as food of sufficient calories and nutrients, clothing that enables necessary work, shelter sufficient to maintain health, and the present level of health care in the US? The question is to take fair distribution of resources out of the equation and not consider the flow of money and financial transactions. Purely production is to be considered. Answering this question could be helpful in emergency preparedness as well as, from a philanthropic perspective, in determining the opportunity to shift resources towards provision of the basic needs for other parts of the world that have been locked in poverty.

This is a work in progress obviously. Feel free to provide relevant information.

Analysis Methodology and Sources

Analysis along these lines might have already been completed for instances of emergency preparedness and defense though those evaluations would likely not assume a fluid market where transitions are made intentionally as opposed to a virus, for example, disabling 20% of workers across all sectors. The Department of Labor might also carry out analysis helpful for this question when they evaluate labor shortages.

One approach to considering this question is to consider what industries, on the whole, don't produce or do anything that is necessary for these basic needs. In eliminating the production of whole industries, unintended consequences would likely occur and that is even after assuming no difficulties in distributing the basic provisions which are still produced (which of course would be difficult if many workers are no longer being paid as they are no longer employed). If the toy industry were eliminated for example children would not have helps in entertainment and sometimes education. These uses of toys however seem noncritical as it's likely the toys could be easily avoided without replacement in a curriculum. But there may exist some use for toys that would have to be replaced. It's conceivable for example that toys allow child care to be done with fewer worker hours per child. Or perhaps some business disassembles toys and uses the parts for some necessary task.

Analysis

The Census Bureau offers information on the "arts, entertainment, and recreation" industry reporting that 2006 revenues were $177 billion.(see http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/services/sas/sas_summary/71summary.htm#industrydescription) BLS reports that entertainment consumes around 5% of consumer income thought definition may be different than for Census as the total given amounts to $342 billion in 2008.(see http://www.bls.gov/cex/#tables)