The Media, Polls, and Education: Their Impact on National Security

It is only rational that nations determine the makeup, strength, and disposition of their military based on threat assessments. Such an assessment would be incomplete without considering not only the military capability of other nations but their potential behaviors. Much of Europe of course invites the presence of US military assets on their soil whereas the Russians seem to fear minuscule US military deployments even in border countries. One key explanation for the difference is the assessment of potential behavior.

How should the likely future behavior of a country be determined. In a dictatorship or totalitarian regime a primary determinant of behavior is the psychology and world view of it's leaders. When assessing the potential behavior of a democracy, the psychology of the population becomes of increasing importance because, no matter the words of the present leadership, the future leadership will be determined by that population.

So assessing the threat a democratic country poses to a nation requires evaluating the world view and disposition of the population. One tool in that approach is to evaluate the popular media and polls. If the most popular voices are the ones calling for territorial expansion or war against another country one would conclude that the population is more likely to elect a government that will carry out those policies.

In addition to foreign policy proposals that seem to have popularity, determining the ability of the population to be swayed by irrational argument is also a necessary consideration in assessing the potential future threat posed by democratic countries. If the population seems easily taken by absurd thinking or conspiracy theories, that country's future behavior could rightly be considered a larger threat than if the population largely dispelled such thinking. In making this assessment any national movement or debate could shine light on the extent of irrationality in the population.

These principles, along with others of course, are likely used in assessing the threat the US poses to other countries. The larger threat the US seems to pose, the more resources countries might rationally decide they need to spend on countering that threat. This would tend to increase the size and capability of militaries in threatened countries as well as increase the risk of nuclear proliferation. These tendencies threaten US security directly but also in raising the potential for human and economic crisis that effect it morally and financially.

Education and christian evangelization (the real type the recognizes that God humbled Himself even to an unjust death, the type that knows giving sacrificially is worth more than spare billions) are two things that can reduce these tendencies.