A government that distributes resources equally among it's people may be a more just form of government from a christian perspective where retaining wealth may be more a stumbling block than a blessing and where love is king. But such a society unravels in practice because it's people are not morally pure. Without the carrot of worldly gain, effort to contribute to society deteriorates. At the same time a morally pure and mature society would properly give and distribute wealth without government intervention. Thus a highly distributive system will thrive only if there is a holy people, but the existence of a holy people negates the needs or benefits of a communist legal system.
Of course the practicality of distributing resources fairly by law also causes communist governments to fail because it is impossible to know the just needs of everyone and codify it due to the spectrum of health and family considerations. Doing so would also interfere with markets at all levels and create improper pricing which would in turn lead to huge inefficiencies.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Friday, March 26, 2010
Educational Journalism - Teaching Rational Decision Making through the News
The article entitled "RNC loses bid to raise unlimited 'soft' money" by Sharon Theimer at www.washingtonpost.com, included links to court documents at www.uscourts.gov. This approach does readers a great service by not only supplying them with more facts but presenting them with information that is written by subject experts. These citations and links should be broadened to include links to specific academic journal articles when discussing researched points of fact. In this way the news can play a part of showing Americans how to rationally consider claims and prevent the mayhem that was the health care reform "debate" where controversial statements by non-experts, who profit from increased controversy, stifled collaborative innovation and debate.
An article on the health care debate, for example, would then provide links not only to the text of the bill itself, but to the text of CBO analysis, and the text or abstracts of relevant research published in peer-reviewed journals on health care economics, quality, or whatever else the case may be.
Where the educational system has failed, news writing may bridge the gap. It should also be noted that linking to expert level material written by Phd's for Phd's does not take the article out of reach of the the broader public. Most academic journal articles are largely understandable even to the lay person. Even if the content is not largely understandable it will at least point the reader in the direction of where rational analysis and debate should proceed.
An article on the health care debate, for example, would then provide links not only to the text of the bill itself, but to the text of CBO analysis, and the text or abstracts of relevant research published in peer-reviewed journals on health care economics, quality, or whatever else the case may be.
Where the educational system has failed, news writing may bridge the gap. It should also be noted that linking to expert level material written by Phd's for Phd's does not take the article out of reach of the the broader public. Most academic journal articles are largely understandable even to the lay person. Even if the content is not largely understandable it will at least point the reader in the direction of where rational analysis and debate should proceed.
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Minimum Sustainable Employment
What is the maximum level of unemployment in the US that can be maintained while still allowing the provision of the basic needs of the population which could be defined as food of sufficient calories and nutrients, clothing that enables necessary work, shelter sufficient to maintain health, and the present level of health care in the US? The question is to take fair distribution of resources out of the equation and not consider the flow of money and financial transactions. Purely production is to be considered. Answering this question could be helpful in emergency preparedness as well as, from a philanthropic perspective, in determining the opportunity to shift resources towards provision of the basic needs for other parts of the world that have been locked in poverty.
This is a work in progress obviously. Feel free to provide relevant information.
Analysis Methodology and Sources
Analysis along these lines might have already been completed for instances of emergency preparedness and defense though those evaluations would likely not assume a fluid market where transitions are made intentionally as opposed to a virus, for example, disabling 20% of workers across all sectors. The Department of Labor might also carry out analysis helpful for this question when they evaluate labor shortages.
One approach to considering this question is to consider what industries, on the whole, don't produce or do anything that is necessary for these basic needs. In eliminating the production of whole industries, unintended consequences would likely occur and that is even after assuming no difficulties in distributing the basic provisions which are still produced (which of course would be difficult if many workers are no longer being paid as they are no longer employed). If the toy industry were eliminated for example children would not have helps in entertainment and sometimes education. These uses of toys however seem noncritical as it's likely the toys could be easily avoided without replacement in a curriculum. But there may exist some use for toys that would have to be replaced. It's conceivable for example that toys allow child care to be done with fewer worker hours per child. Or perhaps some business disassembles toys and uses the parts for some necessary task.
Analysis
The Census Bureau offers information on the "arts, entertainment, and recreation" industry reporting that 2006 revenues were $177 billion.(see http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/services/sas/sas_summary/71summary.htm#industrydescription) BLS reports that entertainment consumes around 5% of consumer income thought definition may be different than for Census as the total given amounts to $342 billion in 2008.(see http://www.bls.gov/cex/#tables)
This is a work in progress obviously. Feel free to provide relevant information.
Analysis Methodology and Sources
Analysis along these lines might have already been completed for instances of emergency preparedness and defense though those evaluations would likely not assume a fluid market where transitions are made intentionally as opposed to a virus, for example, disabling 20% of workers across all sectors. The Department of Labor might also carry out analysis helpful for this question when they evaluate labor shortages.
One approach to considering this question is to consider what industries, on the whole, don't produce or do anything that is necessary for these basic needs. In eliminating the production of whole industries, unintended consequences would likely occur and that is even after assuming no difficulties in distributing the basic provisions which are still produced (which of course would be difficult if many workers are no longer being paid as they are no longer employed). If the toy industry were eliminated for example children would not have helps in entertainment and sometimes education. These uses of toys however seem noncritical as it's likely the toys could be easily avoided without replacement in a curriculum. But there may exist some use for toys that would have to be replaced. It's conceivable for example that toys allow child care to be done with fewer worker hours per child. Or perhaps some business disassembles toys and uses the parts for some necessary task.
Analysis
The Census Bureau offers information on the "arts, entertainment, and recreation" industry reporting that 2006 revenues were $177 billion.(see http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/services/sas/sas_summary/71summary.htm#industrydescription) BLS reports that entertainment consumes around 5% of consumer income thought definition may be different than for Census as the total given amounts to $342 billion in 2008.(see http://www.bls.gov/cex/#tables)
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Health Reform Summit
The nation as a whole can win but the summit must be extended to allow for a real and public exchange of ideas. After months of discussion this has not yet happened. The media, ever eager to make a soap opera out of Washington discussing polls instead of policy, has thus far presented the public with little pertinent information about health reform.
Months into the debate even Google failed to generate search results that would allow the casual web searcher to find relevant and necessary information about health reform or even the problems it's intended to solve. All this has led to a nation ill equipped to rationally consider the issue.
Unfortunately this isn't the worse of it. The failure of the US education system over the past decades has left much of America without rational decision making skills and the ability to see when they have insufficient information. Thus we're left with politicians positioning themselves for the approval of the uneducated all while dealing with a genuinely difficult issue.
If the president can resist his own political positioning temptations and embarrass the rest of Congress into doing so as well, he could make real progress on health reform while offering a case study for rational decision making.
First there must be agreement on goals. In response to the notion of the Summit Republicans are saying the primary goal should be cost containment. While Obama first seemed to indicate that as his primary goal, in regards to the summit, he emphasized two others as well, helping the uninsured and covering preexisting conditions.
Certainly justice would have us do that for our countrymen but it could easily be framed as a new entitlement. Perhaps a compromise could be put into place whereby the funding of these two initiatives is done not through the federal budget but through nonprofit means or a voluntary "tax". Perhaps systems could be established and marketed so that churches, for example, could purchase insurance or coverage for individuals in need as they choose but at a more competitive rate. This type of compromise on goals would enable steps to be taken to meet Obama's just hopes while not burdening the federal budget thus allowing for the republican leadership to participate on the terms they have stated which aren't unreasonable but simply require charity by free will as opposed to by statute, at least for a first try.
After goals are determined then a mechanism will have to be agreed on how to evaluate proposals. This mechanism will define what is considered evidence to support or contradict a proposal or at the very least will prescribe a structured way to evaluate the credibility and reliability of the information offered for or against any proposal.
Proposals should also be diagrammed to indicate dependencies. For example, specific minimum requirements for a national insurance market presuppose a cross state insurance competition allowance.
Each proposal along with supporting or contradicting arguments should be made available in transcript form online along with a structured way to illicit focused rational commentary on the strength of each piece of evidence or other specific questions.
Months into the debate even Google failed to generate search results that would allow the casual web searcher to find relevant and necessary information about health reform or even the problems it's intended to solve. All this has led to a nation ill equipped to rationally consider the issue.
Unfortunately this isn't the worse of it. The failure of the US education system over the past decades has left much of America without rational decision making skills and the ability to see when they have insufficient information. Thus we're left with politicians positioning themselves for the approval of the uneducated all while dealing with a genuinely difficult issue.
If the president can resist his own political positioning temptations and embarrass the rest of Congress into doing so as well, he could make real progress on health reform while offering a case study for rational decision making.
First there must be agreement on goals. In response to the notion of the Summit Republicans are saying the primary goal should be cost containment. While Obama first seemed to indicate that as his primary goal, in regards to the summit, he emphasized two others as well, helping the uninsured and covering preexisting conditions.
Certainly justice would have us do that for our countrymen but it could easily be framed as a new entitlement. Perhaps a compromise could be put into place whereby the funding of these two initiatives is done not through the federal budget but through nonprofit means or a voluntary "tax". Perhaps systems could be established and marketed so that churches, for example, could purchase insurance or coverage for individuals in need as they choose but at a more competitive rate. This type of compromise on goals would enable steps to be taken to meet Obama's just hopes while not burdening the federal budget thus allowing for the republican leadership to participate on the terms they have stated which aren't unreasonable but simply require charity by free will as opposed to by statute, at least for a first try.
After goals are determined then a mechanism will have to be agreed on how to evaluate proposals. This mechanism will define what is considered evidence to support or contradict a proposal or at the very least will prescribe a structured way to evaluate the credibility and reliability of the information offered for or against any proposal.
Proposals should also be diagrammed to indicate dependencies. For example, specific minimum requirements for a national insurance market presuppose a cross state insurance competition allowance.
Each proposal along with supporting or contradicting arguments should be made available in transcript form online along with a structured way to illicit focused rational commentary on the strength of each piece of evidence or other specific questions.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Promoting Savings Accounts as Community Investments
Saving could be encouraged by banks structuring and marketing savings products as a community investment. They could highlight the positive impact loans of deposits have to help businesses expand, help homes be more energy efficient, enable disabled persons to adapt their homes, or help with the purchase of energy efficient vehicles. Banks could offer savings accounts where the deposited money is tied to certain types of loans and where the depositor is given a summary of what good that money is doing.
This sort of a program would offer the public a sense of immediate benefits to saving while also further emphasizing the opportunity cost of unnecessary purchases. It could appeal to banks struggling to find a way to differentiate their brand.
This sort of a program would offer the public a sense of immediate benefits to saving while also further emphasizing the opportunity cost of unnecessary purchases. It could appeal to banks struggling to find a way to differentiate their brand.
Monday, January 11, 2010
Prison Entrepreneurship
Somewhere around 2 millions people are incarcerated in the US. These are people likely making little contribution to society. It's worth considering what good they might achieve in prison and how that might further efforts at rehabilitation. What productive activity may they do?
From a big picture perspective an incarcerated person of faith could do great good by developing that faith, ministering to fellow prisoners, and praying for the world at large. Numerous prison ministries exist that likely have those objectives.
In a time of economic decline we're also drawn to consider how inmates may make an economic contribution. One potentially powerful way is to enable prisoners to utilize their time and creative capacity to develop new business concepts and plans. Several prison entrepreneurship efforts exist (an article at inc.com offers a listing of some such programs around the country) but it seems most are focused on preparing inmates for entrepreneurial activities outside of prison. The potential of entrepreneurial activities in prison may be worth considering.
Such a program could be team oriented where parts of the prison compete to develop the best business plan. The best plan could be determined by expert review. The awards for winning could include bragging rights or a cut on the profits that their ideas create. Profits could be had by selling of the plan to existing businesses or other entrepreneurs outside the prison.
Some key challenges to this idea include maintaining security and cost. What is reasonably required for inmates to make a potentially viable business plan? Even the means to physically record the plan need consideration. Pencils can be turned into weapons. What percent of the inmate population would require a safe alternative to a pencil? What sort of information and communication would be required and what are the costs and security issues associated with that? What sort of training would be required?
From a big picture perspective an incarcerated person of faith could do great good by developing that faith, ministering to fellow prisoners, and praying for the world at large. Numerous prison ministries exist that likely have those objectives.
In a time of economic decline we're also drawn to consider how inmates may make an economic contribution. One potentially powerful way is to enable prisoners to utilize their time and creative capacity to develop new business concepts and plans. Several prison entrepreneurship efforts exist (an article at inc.com offers a listing of some such programs around the country) but it seems most are focused on preparing inmates for entrepreneurial activities outside of prison. The potential of entrepreneurial activities in prison may be worth considering.
Such a program could be team oriented where parts of the prison compete to develop the best business plan. The best plan could be determined by expert review. The awards for winning could include bragging rights or a cut on the profits that their ideas create. Profits could be had by selling of the plan to existing businesses or other entrepreneurs outside the prison.
Some key challenges to this idea include maintaining security and cost. What is reasonably required for inmates to make a potentially viable business plan? Even the means to physically record the plan need consideration. Pencils can be turned into weapons. What percent of the inmate population would require a safe alternative to a pencil? What sort of information and communication would be required and what are the costs and security issues associated with that? What sort of training would be required?
Friday, October 23, 2009
Open Wiki Style Medical Decision Making
The pace and expanding scope of medical information growth increasingly challenges the ability of doctors to keep up to date. A shortage of health care workers also necessitates that these doctors do more with less time. These two trends combine to increase the risk of less than optimum medical decisions and practice.
Extending an open innovation approach to the medical decisions space may offer a way to mitigate the impact of this problem and achieve new gains. Medical records could be placed anonymously on a web site along with doctors decisions. Visitors to the web site could then review the patient information at their leisure and suggest better diagnosis or treatment options while citing the research that supports their position. It would be somewhat like a wiki of diagnosis and treatment with a means to present conflicting views and allow consensus building.
Patients and their doctors could then review the wiki. Patients could look at it as often as they wish while doctors may want to be alerted only once certain thresholds are reached in terms of consensus on differing diagnosis and treatment and the significance of the difference. Such thresholds could help ensure that the time that doctors spend on this new task is likely to have significant value.
This sort of approach would also allow insight into the most common errors by doctors which could be used as basis for a national effort to communicate best practices to physicians.
Key Challenges
Increased patient interaction with inexpert health commentary could lead to unnecessary further taxing of health care resources as these patients seek to present to their doctors such commentary. Thus it may be necessary to restrict patient access to the wiki in some way if it is found that patients report to their doctor with wiki information that is of no value and based on anecdotal evidence or poorly understood personal experience.
The popularity and success of wikipedia and other open innovation platforms may not transfer to a wiki of medical decision making because of some clear differences. First and foremost perhaps is that the "experts" are already over tasked so this program would likely not be able to piggy back off of their efforts, particularly MD's. It may be that Ph.D.'s involved in medical research may have sufficient expertise to quickly and efficiently review and contribute to medical records with characteristics within their scope of expertise. These experts may be more inclined to exam medical records.
Novices face larger hurdles to making good contributions than with Wikipedia. Where for Wikipedia one could find several pieces of corroborating information and include them in a relevant article with an intuitive sense of their significance, the experience with a wiki of medical diagnosis and treatment would be different. The diversity of medical conditions and their presentations make it much harder for a novice to first understand enough to evaluate the information and then know when they know enough to suggest a differing diagnosis or treatment path. It would seem feasible that, for a great many conditions, after the novice has command of human physiology not much more than is often covered in high school health classes, they may be able to work their way through a diagnosis or treatment decision tree when presented with such a tree and with access to resources like wikipedia within a handful of hours or days. This claim seems worth evaluating.
A second key difference between this sort of wiki of medical decisions and say wikipedia is that persons with a limited scope of interest or expertise may find it more difficult to find patients with the conditions they are expert in particularly if their aim is to ensure proper diagnosis and seek out misdiagnosis. It would seem easy enough to make records searchable by physician diagnosis, but making symptoms, lab work, and certainly diagnostic imagery effectively searchable seems a much more difficult task.
Extending an open innovation approach to the medical decisions space may offer a way to mitigate the impact of this problem and achieve new gains. Medical records could be placed anonymously on a web site along with doctors decisions. Visitors to the web site could then review the patient information at their leisure and suggest better diagnosis or treatment options while citing the research that supports their position. It would be somewhat like a wiki of diagnosis and treatment with a means to present conflicting views and allow consensus building.
Patients and their doctors could then review the wiki. Patients could look at it as often as they wish while doctors may want to be alerted only once certain thresholds are reached in terms of consensus on differing diagnosis and treatment and the significance of the difference. Such thresholds could help ensure that the time that doctors spend on this new task is likely to have significant value.
This sort of approach would also allow insight into the most common errors by doctors which could be used as basis for a national effort to communicate best practices to physicians.
Key Challenges
Increased patient interaction with inexpert health commentary could lead to unnecessary further taxing of health care resources as these patients seek to present to their doctors such commentary. Thus it may be necessary to restrict patient access to the wiki in some way if it is found that patients report to their doctor with wiki information that is of no value and based on anecdotal evidence or poorly understood personal experience.
The popularity and success of wikipedia and other open innovation platforms may not transfer to a wiki of medical decision making because of some clear differences. First and foremost perhaps is that the "experts" are already over tasked so this program would likely not be able to piggy back off of their efforts, particularly MD's. It may be that Ph.D.'s involved in medical research may have sufficient expertise to quickly and efficiently review and contribute to medical records with characteristics within their scope of expertise. These experts may be more inclined to exam medical records.
Novices face larger hurdles to making good contributions than with Wikipedia. Where for Wikipedia one could find several pieces of corroborating information and include them in a relevant article with an intuitive sense of their significance, the experience with a wiki of medical diagnosis and treatment would be different. The diversity of medical conditions and their presentations make it much harder for a novice to first understand enough to evaluate the information and then know when they know enough to suggest a differing diagnosis or treatment path. It would seem feasible that, for a great many conditions, after the novice has command of human physiology not much more than is often covered in high school health classes, they may be able to work their way through a diagnosis or treatment decision tree when presented with such a tree and with access to resources like wikipedia within a handful of hours or days. This claim seems worth evaluating.
A second key difference between this sort of wiki of medical decisions and say wikipedia is that persons with a limited scope of interest or expertise may find it more difficult to find patients with the conditions they are expert in particularly if their aim is to ensure proper diagnosis and seek out misdiagnosis. It would seem easy enough to make records searchable by physician diagnosis, but making symptoms, lab work, and certainly diagnostic imagery effectively searchable seems a much more difficult task.
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